Based on their ratings (Kasparov 2813, Kasimdzhanov 2650), the following probabilities can be calculated for the various possible outcomes of the match.
+4 Kasimdzhanov – 0.1%
+3 Kasimdzhanov – 0.3%
+2 Kasimdzhanov – 0.8%
+1 Kasimdzhanov – 1.4%
Even – 3.4%
+1 Kasparov – 4.8%
+2 Kasparov – 12.2%
+3 Kasparov – 21.6%
+4 Kasparov – 25.4%
+5 Kasparov – 22.0%
+6 Kasparov – 7.4%
+7 Kasparov – 0.5%
If we simplify by assuming a 50-50 chance in tiebreaks, we get the following odds:
- Kasimdzhanov keeping the title – 4.3%
- Kasparov winning the title – 95.7%
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